Putin faces a rough ride in Kremlin

A fight for political survival will dominate Vladimir Putin’s expected third Kremlin term as growing opposition to his 12-year rule undermines his mandate to conduct painful economic reforms, analysts say. Prime Minister Putin’s September announcement that he planned to return to the presidency in March elections met immediate resistance and brought tens of thousands on to the streets in protests unseen since the tumultuous 1990s. Seeking to respond to this criticism, Putin has written four articles promising Russians greater freedoms and a competitive economy but analysts said his response was too little, too late. “He is coming back to a country that has had enough of him,” Lilia Shevtsova, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, told AFP. “This is a very dramatic role.” The protest movement was triggered by December parliamentary elections tainted by allegations of fraud. Election observers and the opposition said they were slanted in favor of Putin’s ruling United Russia party. The movement first called for a re-run of the vote but soon became distinctly anti-Putin. Putin, who served two presidential terms between 2000 and 2008, has ignored opposition calls for a new parliamentary vote, instead pressing on with his campaign to win back his old job. It would keep him in the Kremlin for at least six more years. Few doubt that Putin will win the March polls, but his approval ratings have fallen below 50 percent. He may for the first time face a run-off against his nearest challenger, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, a humiliating prospect that his minders will want to avoid at all costs. On arrival in the Kremlin, Putin will have to conduct long-delayed reforms of the tax, pension and utilities systems whose costs will be partly shouldered by ordinary Russians, analysts said. “If the reforms are not undertaken, the possibility of a huge full-blown crisis emerges on the horizon,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at Moscow-based investment bank Otkritie Capital. “Inaction will lead to his political death and the death of the regime. He understands that the risk is huge,” he told AFP. But the legitimacy crisis engulfing Putin’s government will weaken his authority to push through economic reforms, which in turn are likely to exacerbate the political crisis, analysts said. “These are painful measures, they will trigger public discontent,” said independent analyst Alexander Golts. “Already their dissatisfaction is growing without worsening of the economic situation. If these two protests coincide, they will trigger difficult consequences for Putin.” Tens of thousands took to the streets Saturday despite freezing cold, surprising even the organisers of the budding opposition movement’s third protest since December. Mass rallies have so far been limited to Moscow and Saint Petersburg but the danger of protests escalating across the country to include Soviet-era company towns has not been lost on the Kremlin. Putin’s four articles since January have promised Russians a “new” economy and greater freedoms and encouragred them to develop grass-roots democracy at a municipal level. He also vowed to end police repression, make government more accountable and proposed tough new immigration rules. But analysts say the strongman is not keeping up with the times. A chorus of voices including the Soviet Union’s last leader Mikhail Gorbachev have called not only for a new parliamentary vote but also for the revision of a political model they say encourages the usurpation of power. They say that the Constitution, which was adopted after Boris Yeltsin’s stand-off with parliament in 1993 and gave him enormous powers at its expense, should be amended. The chairman of the Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, hit back at the proposal, however, accusing the “creative classes” of seeking to undermine the state and turn the country into a new war zone. “Are they ready to summon NATO special forces to support the establishment of a new statehood in Russia based on the Libyan model?,” he asked recently in the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta. Many dismiss the prospect of a violent uprising in the next few years as far-fetched but analysts also point to the government’s recent moves to increase military spending, suggesting Putin will fight tooth and nail to hold on to power. “Repressive bodies account for a third of the Russian budget,” said Shevtsova of the Carnegie Moscow Center, referring to the military, the police and the FSB security service. “They are getting ready to use force.” While the Kremlin has drastically cut the bloated army ranks, the numbers of the interior ministry’s internal troops will remain unchanged, added Golts. “Internal troops are used to put down a revolt,” he told AFP, estimating their numbers at 180,000.