road ahead full of danger as new front opens in syria
Last Updated : GMT 10:55:30
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Last Updated : GMT 10:55:30
Arab Today, arab today

Road ahead full of danger as new front opens in Syria

Arab Today, arab today

road ahead full of danger as new front opens in syria

Yasar Yakis

Turkey has launched its long-awaited military operation — dubbed “Olive Branch” — in the Syrian province of Afrin. There was much talk of this operation for months, but recent controversial statements may have accelerated the process or have served as a justification for Turkey to go ahead at once.
It started with a statement by the US-led anti-Daesh coalition that a 30,000-strong “Border Security Force” was to be set up in the northeast of Syria. A decision of this nature requires the unanimous agreement of the members of the coalition, or at least their consensus. Setting up an army in the territory of another country has no justification in international law. 
Wisdom prevailed a few days’ later and the US stepped back from this untenable decision. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson described his administration’s move as “misportrayed” and “misdescribed,” and said: “Some people misspoke.” What is more, Tillerson made this statement immediately after he met in Vancouver his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. Turkey rightly drew pride from having persuaded the US to change its position. 
Tillerson further explained that the US intention was to train local forces in the fight against Daesh. In a bid to gain the hearts of Turkish leaders, he said the US owed Turkey an explanation. However, Ankara remained unimpressed by this conciliatory rhetoric.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan capitalized on the US lurching from one position to another, thinking that the atmosphere was suitable for launching the military operation. This does not mean that, without this misstep, the operation would not have been launched. 
The operation started, as usual, with air attacks to soften the targets. This will be followed by the advance of fighters from the Free Syrian Army, trained and supported by Turkey, and later by the Turkish army, when it becomes necessary. That will definitely become necessary sooner or later, especially when the operation expands to Manbij and to the east of the Euphrates.
Clearing Afrin of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighters may not be as easy as in the earlier operation code-named “Euphrates Shield.” The seizure of Al-Bab alone cost Turkey the lives of about 70 soldiers. The rugged topography of Afrin and better-equipped Kurdish soldiers may pose a more serious threat for the Turkish army, but this will be a war between the second-biggest army in NATO and a group of fighters, no matter how dedicated they may be to their cause. Turkey seems to have decided to pay the price. The coinciding of this operation with the run-up to the crucial 2019 elections will make Turkey more determined for a victory.
The name of the operation, “Olive Branch,” is reminiscent of Turkey’s ultimate intention to come to terms with Kurds, but it is uncertain whether middle ground can be found.
A more serious situation may arise if the Turkish army does not bog down in Afrin and expands the operation to Manbij and to the east of the Euphrates. Confrontation between Turkey and the US armies may become unavoidable. This has risks for both sides. It does not mean that Turkey will defeat the American army, but there are risks of a large number of casualties. Subordinate-level US officers have stated several times that, if the US-trained Kurds are attacked, the US army will protect them. Washington may try to protect the Kurds, not because of these promises but because of their longer-term policy goals. 
Russia opposed the US decision to set up a Border Security Force, but it is also a traditional supporter of the Kurdish cause. The US affirmed it has no forces in Afrin — but Russia has. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied news that appeared in the Turkish media, saying: “Russia will not withdraw its soldiers from Afrin.” If the Russian soldiers are hit by accident or through the conspiracy of third countries, the nascent Turkish-Russian cooperation will go back to square one. 
Turkey’s cooperation with Iran in Syria is limited to certain tactical issues. Turkey announced that, after clearing Afrin from the “YPG terrorists,” it would hand over the administration to the Free Syrian Army, like it did in Jarabulus. Iran may not support this plan and this will be yet another headache for Turkey. 
There seems to be many risky turns in the road ahead, but Erdogan is a person who can take risks. Whichever side emerges as a winner, a new front is now open in Syria and all stakeholders will try to get their plunder from this new war.

 

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

road ahead full of danger as new front opens in syria road ahead full of danger as new front opens in syria

 



Arab Today, arab today Modern colorful bedroom renovation

GMT 11:23 2017 Thursday ,21 December

Modern colorful bedroom renovation
Arab Today, arab today For the Variety of Interior Design Styles

GMT 11:14 2017 Tuesday ,19 December

For the Variety of Interior Design Styles

GMT 00:42 2017 Monday ,23 January

Ahmed Eid's Yabani Asli targets children, family

GMT 11:50 2017 Monday ,13 February

Samiha Ayoub has not given priority to money

GMT 11:53 2017 Saturday ,16 September

Jolie effect helps Namibian tourism

GMT 08:42 2016 Wednesday ,07 December

At Milaidhoo Island, Maldives

GMT 10:44 2017 Monday ,01 May

Actress Salwa Khattab chooses roles carefully

GMT 10:11 2013 Wednesday ,10 July

Ward El Khal continues Ramadan shoot in Egypt

GMT 16:26 2017 Thursday ,18 May

Arab Fashion Week opens in Dubai

GMT 10:55 2017 Wednesday ,05 July

Dina says latest Ramadan was turning point

GMT 18:12 2017 Friday ,24 February

Zainab al-Maliki reveals herTV presenter models

GMT 09:29 2017 Sunday ,22 January

Hamada Helal: I did not raise my concerts salary

GMT 13:40 2016 Thursday ,29 December

World's oldest male panda dies

GMT 08:21 2017 Monday ,20 November

Yasmine happy for new cooperation with Ramadan

GMT 03:30 2017 Saturday ,16 September

That's a wrap: 'Veep' to end next year

GMT 18:05 2017 Wednesday ,18 October

Weather advisory NCMS has urged motorists

GMT 19:49 2017 Monday ,11 September

Iraq holds 1,300 IS women, children: security official

GMT 09:54 2018 Monday ,22 January

Monaco see off Metz to take third in Ligue 1

GMT 09:12 2018 Monday ,15 January

Car bomb wounds Hamas official in south Lebanon

GMT 07:59 2018 Sunday ,14 January

Olympic flame stops in Seoul

GMT 03:26 2018 Thursday ,11 January

California mudslides death toll reaches 15

GMT 01:15 2018 Thursday ,11 January

Mosul's old heart in ruins six months after IS ousted

GMT 04:46 2018 Wednesday ,10 January

Fashion East confirmed for Fashion
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday