Vietnam index up 1.14% on positive macro data

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange’s VN Index gained 1.14  per cent, or 5.16 points, to close at 459.26 points on Monday. Foreigners bought 155.13 billion dong ($7.43 million) worth of shares and sold stocks valued at 60.61 billion dong, the exchange said. Doan Tran Phuong Phi, head of brokerage, Ho Chi Minh City Securities: “More traders jumped in to buy on positive macro-economic data, including lower-than-expected monthly inflation in March.” “The gain was also supported by rising foreign buying. There were signs of fresh foreign inflows.” “Stocks are likely to hit strong resistance levels at 480 points in the main market, and 78-80 points in the Hanoi exchange.” “The economic growth slowed to a three-year low in the first quarter as domestic production stagnated and consumption shrank due to high inflation and high interest rates.” Tran Minh Hoang, analyst, Vietcombank Securities: “Stocks extended the gaining streak on positive macro data. Fresh cash inflows may rise further. Securities, food and foodstuff, rubber stocks and some real estate firms are likely to outperform in the next rally.” Raphael Wilhelm, tactical strategist, Ho Chi Minh City-based and open-closed T.I.M. Vietnam Tiger Fund: “A falling CPI is undoubtedly the main catalyst for the Vietnamese stock market as a drop in inflation leads to lower interest rates, further stabilise the VND/USD exchange rate and dampen local demand for gold. Local investors, still accounting for 80 per cent of the trading volume, therefore continue to switch into stocks at the expense of gold or cash holdings.” “The Vietnamese market has experienced a nice run-up since mid-January 2012, accompanied by a pick-up in trading volume, but the market is still trading more than 60 per cent below its 2007 high.” “We believe that the long-term bull cycle has just started, on the back of faster-than-expected improvements across the board on the macro side, combined with still the cheapest multiples among southeast Asian markets. Our price target for 2012 is at 600 for the VN Index, therefore an upside of 30 per cent from today’s levels.” Giang Trung Kien, head of analysis, FPT Securities: