Shower of rockets on border city believed to provoke Turkey into Syrian war

Kilis, a Turkish border city which has been hit by a shower of rockets from Syria in recent weeks, may have been intentionally targeted to punish Turkey or pull it into the Syrian conflict, analysts say.

Opinions have differed as to which rebel group in the Syrian civil war may be firing the rockets, but all agreed that it is not by some miscalculation that the rockets are falling on Kilis.

"It is obvious that the rockets purposefully targeted Kilis," said Serhat Erkmen, a senior analyst with the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute.

More than 50 rockets fired from Syria have befallen Kilis since mid-January, killing a total of 18 people including seven Syrians refugees and injuring more than 60 others.

Kilis currently hosts around 120,000 Syrians who fled the civil war at home, while some 30 percent of its population of 100,000 have moved to neighboring provinces, as reported by Turkish media.

On Thursday, five rockets fired from the Syrian city of Jarabulus hit the Turkish town of Karkamis in Gaziantep, a province next to Kilis on the border, without any casualties.

The Islamic State (IS) is suspected behind the rocket attacks, but other analysts believe that moderate Syrian rebel groups supported by Turkey may also have played their part with a view to provoking a Turkish military intervention, as they are losing ground against the IS around Azaz.

Azaz, which lies opposite from Kilis and to the north of Aleppo, is only about 10 kilometers from the Turkish border.

Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations from Atilim University in Ankara, said that it is more probable that the rockets were fired by rebel groups supported by Turkey such as the al-Nusra Front to provoke a Turkish adventure into Syria.

In his view, it is not possible for so many rockets to mistakenly land in Kilis during clashes among rebel groups in Syria.

Ibrahim Kalin, the presidential spokesman, said recently that some of the rockets may have been intentionally fired on Kilis, while some others may have reached it by accident.

According to Erkmen, the rocket firings are being conducted by the IS as part of its wave of attacks and strategy against Turkey, as Ankara is offering support to rebels fighting against the militant group in Syria.

"The number of IS attacks against Turkey, which was only 10 until August last year when Turkey joined the coalition of countries fighting IS, has risen to 24 since then," Erkmen said, using another acronym for IS.

The IS is also held responsible for several suicide bombings that killed more than 100 people in Turkey in the past six months.

Erkmen noted that the rocket firings have increased following other rebel groups' attacks on IS, which may well indicate the group's intent to avenge Turkey.

In response, Turkey has fired artillery shells against IS positions in northern Syria and reinforced troops on the border.

In addition, Ankara has had the coalition air forces bomb IS positions, as its fighter jets cannot fly over Syria for fear of being shot down in retaliation by Russian air defense units in Syria.

In November last year, Turkey downed a Russian warplane over its border with Syria on the grounds of the jet having violated Turkish air space for 17 seconds.

Turkey is also set to beef up its defense on the Syrian border by an advanced mobile rocket launcher system the United States is expected to deploy in May.

Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus announced on April 25 that the Turkish army would boost its military presence and power on the border with Syria and carry out "surveillance of the border with additional drones and devices in an effort to know of possible attacks in advance."

In its efforts to stem the spillover of the Syrian war, Turkey has long been seeking to stop the Kurdish advance toward western Syria along its border and to establish a safe zone between Jerablus and Afrin in northern Syria.

For Ankara, the Syrian Kurds' push for an autonomous region or even worse an independent state in the north is a nightmare and will inspire Turkish kurds who are fighting against government forces in Turkey's southeast.

Turkey has so far failed to get the support of the U.S. and the European Union for the establishment of a 10-kilometer safe zone in northern Syria, where it says Syrian refugees could be hosted.

According to reports in Turkish press, the rockets that have hit Kilis are Russian-made Katyushas and are being fired from areas under IS control.

In the view of Cahit Armagan Dilek, deputy director of the Ankara-based think tank Anka Institute, if the rockets are really Katyushas, then they may have been fired from areas controlled by rebel groups.

"The IS-controlled areas near the Turkish border lies beyond Katyusha's range of 11 kilometers," he explained.

The moderate rebels could be seeking to set the ground for Turkey's military assistance to them, Dilek argued.

Turkey has tried without success to persuade the U.S. to jointly launch a ground offensive against the IS.

Such an offensive would not only allow Turkey to prevent Kurds from uniting their two self-declared cantons with the Afrin canton, but would also enable it to better support rebel groups against the Syrian government's advance around Aleppo.

In February, Turkey and Saudi Arabia threatened a ground operation in Syria.

A Turkish columnist in the pro-government Yeni Safak daily said lately that Turkey was now seriously mulling the possibility of establishing on its own a safe zone in Syria to protect itself from attacks.

Analysts usually advise against such an option. Instead they are calling on the government to cooperate with the Syrian government as well as with Russia and Iran.

"If Turkey were to support the regime in Damascus in its efforts to gain control in the country, that would also eliminate the threat on its border," said Dilek.

Most argue that in the case of a military intervention on its own to establish a safe zone, Turkey risks being not only targeted by various armed groups, but also getting confronted by Russia and Iran in Syria.

"It would not be right for Turkey to carry out a military operation into Syria," Unal said, referring to the fact of Turkey being at odds with both the U.S. and Russia over Syria.

"What's going on in Syria is a mini world war," warned Dilek, alluding to the unending jostling among different forces in the war-torn country.

Source: XINHUA