Will a different Cuba emerge after death of Fidel Castro?

The death of Cuba's revolutionary leader Fidel Castro in late November has raised an inevitable question for the Caribbean island nation: what next?

Some foresee inevitable changes stemming from this tragic loss while others reject any evolution, saying his legacy and ideas will continue to be built upon.

So far, no answer has been given. But the current context of globalization, rising protectionism, growing inter-connectivity and changes to the global geopolitical map all pose real challenges.

Fidel's absence has sparked debates about various theories among Cubans. For many, transformations are natural but the social benefits of the Cuban socialist system are non-negotiable.

Cuba faces a mixed scenario. Its economy is depressed, its natural resources are scant and it is in dire need of significant investments. However, its social indicators such as mortality rates, infant malnutrition, free healthcare and education, and subsidies for essential items are all better than those of many more developed nations.

"Changes are coming near, including that of the exchange rate. Productivity must be improved in all aspects. The rise in foreign capital inflow will also push the opening-up of Cuba," Abel Diaz, a worker in Havana, told Xinhua.

However, Diaz said such changes are not new since they have already happened in efforts to update the country's socio-economic model that have been debated for several years.

International analyst Iroel Sanchez said a massive process to outline the country's future strategic development has just recently ended.

Large popular assemblies were held across the country in September, when hundreds of thousands of Cubans discussed about 274 proposed economic and social policies for 2016-2021.

These were approved in April at the 7th Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, on top of two new economic documents, namely, Conceptualization of the Economic Model and National Socialist Development Plan, and 2030: Proposal for the Outlook of the Nation, Pillars and Strategic Sectors.

"These contain the basis for the type of country the people want to build. Everything included in the documents represents a collective consensus," said Sanchez.

However, the fact that Fidel Castro died at a time when Donald Trump will soon assume the United States presidency must be taken into account when analyzing Cuba's possible future.

"The dominant class in the U.S. feels its historical destiny is to dominate Cuba. For this, there are various instruments they could utilize," said Sanchez.

"Barack Obama chose, without abandoning the embargo, to use more seductive instruments. Trump seems to be a representative of the most extremist and ignorant wing of this class," he added.

The political expert believes if Trump reverses the progress made since December 2014 in the Cuba-U.S. relations, discords between the two countries will increase.

According to Sanchez, the sorrow about Fidel Castro's death shows where the Cuban people stand.

"The Cuban people sent a strong message of unity for the ideas Fidel Castro left behind. What can be felt in Cuba today is a desire for continuity of what Fidel built," he said.

Isabela Lopez, a young university student, still feels very committed to Fidel's ideas, like many of her generation.

"Now he is no longer physically here, our responsibility is greater to continue the path he outlined. He taught us that the dignity and resistance of a people determined to defend its own destiny are key to victory. Nobody will remove us from that idea," she said.

Another important thing is that Cuban President Raul Castro will complete his second five-year presidential mandate in 2018, after which he has pledged to step down.

However, to ensure continuity, Raul will remain at the party's helm till its next congress is held in 2021.

Cuba is not a perfect nation. However, its people largely support the leadership in progressively changing its path over time.

source: Xinhua