Dubai is a unique experiment in the history of the world, says leading global strategist

Dubai is a unique experiment in the history of the world, according to leading global strategist and best-selling author Dr. Parag Khanna.

Dr. Khanna was speaking at the second Dubai Knowledge Majlis organised by the Government of Dubai Media Office (GDMO), an initiative aimed at providing a platform for senior Dubai government officials to gain insights from leading international thought leaders and experts on vital issues impacting the future of the region.

At the event, Dr. Khanna presented the main insights from his forthcoming book ‘Connectography’ that will be released worldwide later this month.

Dubai is the most diverse city in the entire world. "All the great global cities of the world have managed this diversity," he told the audience.

Speaking about global migration trends, he said, the largest growth in migration happens between emerging markets. "That tells you that people are chasing opportunity. This city has been one of the prime beneficiaries of this."

Dr. Khanna spoke at length about how the world is undergoing a transformational shift, moving beyond simple interdependence into a hyper-connected future of relentless competition among countries, cities, companies and communities, all empowered by technology and capital to pursue their own objectives.

"Every 500 years, the structure of the global system changes," he said, adding that the world is currently at the beginning of another change, which he called the ‘Network Civilisation’.

"If you add up the length of all the world’s infrastructure, you get about 75 million kilometres. If you add up the length of all the political borders dividing our countries, you get 500,000 kilometres. The ratio is 150 kilometres of connectivity for every one kilometre of division. The gap is growing. We live in a world of total and complete connectivity," he said.

Rapidly increasing connectivity has transformed the equation between supply and demand, he said. "The entire world has been reorganised by infrastructure and supply chains. Instead of a world of nations and borders, we have infrastructure and supply chains connecting cities. That is the map of the world," he said.

"Because supply can always meet demand, you have resilience," he pointed out. Giving the example of oil, he said that the ability of supply to meet demand and the growing supply of energy on all continents, supported also by the installed capacity of renewable and alternative fuels, has facilitated the structural permanent availability of multiple kinds of energy across all geographies.

Presenting a hopeful vision of the future, Dr. Khanna argued that new energy discoveries and innovations have eliminated the need for resource wars. Beneath the chaos of a world that appears to be falling apart is a new foundation of connectivity pulling it together.

In a world of total connectivity, there will be no significant disruptions to trade even in the event of a crisis at maritime choke points. "In a world of total connectivity you have alternative pathways. No one choke point can disrupt the global energy system," he said. He cited the alternative of trans-Arctic shipping created by the melting of the polar ice caps, which will not be affected by crises.

Dr. Khanna pointed out that the battles of the future will not be over borders. "I believe we are at war every single day, you’re fighting over connectivity, you’re fighting to gain the maximum value added from global supply chains. Whoever is the most connected wins," he said.

Speaking about the role of megacities in the world economy, he said that there are 35 megacities where the most important economic activity is concentrated. Most countries, he said, have an "extraordinary economic dependence" on one or two megacities.

One of the major developments that has catalysed the connectivity of countries to global supply chains and the growth of exports is the emergence of Special Economic Zones. UAE, he said, has been one of the biggest proponents of promoting growth through such zones. "There used to be only a dozen Special Economic Zones 50 years go, but there are 4,000 such zones today around the world. Asia has the most of them as well as the largest export-to-GDP ratios coming from these zones," he said.

Speaking about the UAE’s success in raising growth and exports through Special Economic Zones, he said that most of the Special Economic Zones in the region are in the UAE and most of the Special Economic Zones in the UAE are in Dubai. This has given the country regulatory credibility. It has brought in a large amount of international capital and increased the share of services in the economy, he said.

He cited the example of how Special Economic Zones in South East Asia have helped the region attract more FDI than China annually by offering a high quality of infrastructure, incentives to attract talent, regulatory certainty and a high value-added component in exports.

Ultimately, the race in the world today for better governance is not about who can capture the most from taxation, it is about who brings the highest investment, he said, adding that the relentless competition for investment will accelerate every day.

Dr. Khanna concluded his talk by reminding the audience that the most powerful law of history is supply and demand. Dubai’s ability to supply connectivity, commercial access and logistical infrastructure and be an intermediary between supply and demand for the world has made it a global hub, he said.

Dr. Khanna’s Connectography is the first book to focus on the ‘Network Civilization’ as the new foundation of the world order. It strongly features Dubai as the newest on the list of global cities alongside New York, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore. The book says that Dubai has always been at the centre of the world and the crossroads of civilizations, and is wisely using connectivity to seize this destiny.

Parag Khanna is a CNN Global Contributor and Senior Research Fellow in the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. He is also the Managing Partner of Hybrid Reality, a geostrategic advisory firm, and Co-Founder & CEO of Factotum, a boutique content strategy agency.

Source:WAM