Oil prices, trade tensions to put pressure on rupee

Fears over the rise in global trade protectionist measures coupled with high oil prices are expected to exert pressure on the Indian rupee, experts said.

However, healthy economic growth rate data released on Friday is expected to somewhat arrest any sharp decline in the rupee vale in the initial days of the coming week.

Anindya Banerjee, deputy vice-president for currency and interest Rates with Kotak Securities said that the dollar-rupee pair continues to be driven by the "EM turmoil, rising oil prices, trade war and a pre-election risk for India".

"RBI intervention may continue to support rupee as it trades closer to 71 level," Banerjee told IANS.

The RBI is known to enter markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.

"A robust growth outlook for the Indian economy should prevent a sharp decline in rupee. We expect a range of 70-71.50 on spot for next week," Banerjee said.

According to Sajal Gupta, head forex and rates at Edelweiss Securities, high crude prices can put pressure on rupee as Iran sanctions "force our oil refiners to buy from other suppliers" to whom up-front payments would be made. "September seasonally is a appreciative month for the rupee historically... the rupee needs to break below key 70.20 levels to sustain any short-term strength."

Apart from high crude oil prices, any further outflow of foreign funds from the Indian equity and bond markets might have an adverse impact on the rupee.

Rushabh Maru, research analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, told IANS: "Strong reading of India GDP data may provide some relief to the rupee. However, any appreciation in the rupee would be temporary as importers may rush to cover their unhedged exposure on any appreciation opportunity."

"Exporters are likely to refrain from selling US dollars at this juncture as there are talks of the rupee moving towards 72-73 levels."