IEA forecasts rise in oil demand in Q4

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday projected an increase in global oil demand at around 90.5 mb/d in fourth quarter of this year, 435 kb/d more than forecast last month. The rising forecast was boosted by the increased demand in China and based on the stronger-than-expected October preliminary demand data, IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), a monthly publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. However, demand risks still challenge the oil market as "global economic expansion remains tepid," the outlook for demand growth in 2013 remains "relatively sluggish", at 900,000 barrels a day (900 kb/d), IEA projected. As for production, the energy organization noted that oil production of NON-OPEC "bounced back by 0.7 mb/d in November on the month, to 54 mb/d after fields in the North Sea and Brazil returned from maintenance." IEA remained optimistic with the oil production in the United States as its output also rose steeply and "will contribute to an aggregate non-OPEC increase of 0.9 mb/d to 54.2 mb/d in 2013, the highest growth rate since 2010." Meanwhile, the crude oil supply in OPEC inched up in November, led by higher output from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Algeria and Libya, but the output remained constrained in Nigeria by severe flooding and sabotage, and in Iran by "shipping constraints and stepped-up sanctions." "Compared with a year ago, global supplies were 1.9 mb/d higher, with increased OPEC supplies accounting for 70 percent of the year-on-year growth," IEA reported. On the same day, OPEC agreed to keep the cartel's oil production limit of 30 million barrels per day, given the weakness and uncertainty of the world economy in 2013.