us fed and european central bank go their separate ways
Last Updated : GMT 06:49:16
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Last Updated : GMT 06:49:16
Arab Today, arab today

US Fed and European Central Bank go their separate ways

Arab Today, arab today

Arab Today, arab today US Fed and European Central Bank go their separate ways

European Central Bank
Frankfurt - Arab Today

Two of the world's biggest central banks are likely to find themselves with a bigger policy gap by the end of the coming fortnight

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday will resist calls to start tightening policy against surging inflation but robust US jobs data on Friday could seal the case for another Federal Reserve hike the week after. 

So, let's say minus 0.4 per cent rates in Europe and more than 0.75 per cent in Washington.

With just weeks to go before contentious French and Dutch elections, the ECB will be keen not to rock the boat, so it is likely to give just a token nod to robust growth figures, steering clear of any policy hint that may give emerging populist movements ammunition.

A Reuters poll showed unanimity for no change.

But the balancing act may be more difficult than it looks.

With growth on its best run since before the financial crisis and inflation peeking just above the ECB's target, calls are mounting, particularly in Germany, for the bank to scale back its 2.3 trillion euro ($2.42 trillion) bond buying scheme and raise its negative interest rates.

Doves hold a comfortable majority among the policymakers, however, so any shift will come at the margins. In practice that could mean increased inflation forecasts, letting an ultra-cheap lending scheme to banks expire as scheduled, and dropping a reference to the risk that growth may disappoint.

Still, ECB President Mario Draghi will probably avoid any discussion about winding down asset buys, even pushing back on calls by some rate setters to tweak the ECB's guidance, giving up its reference to further rate cuts, a possibility markets have already priced out.

"If the French presidential election also passes without turbulence, and growth and inflation data remain solid, the ECB might turn more hawkish in its meeting on June 8," Reinhard Cluse, economist at investment bank UBS, said. "This would then leave the meeting on July 20 for preparing the markets for the tapering (off asset-buying) on September 7."

For now though, Draghi will stick to his line that the inflation surge is temporary, growth is fragile and political risks clouds the outlook, requiring stimulus, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

Having tightened policy in 2011 just months before the euro zone debt crisis started spiralling out of control, the ECB will be desperate not to move too early, even if it risks being called out by some for moving too late.

US jobs

The Fed, meanwhile, must deal with what Draghi dubbed a high-class problem: solid growth, full employment and returning inflation.

Non-farm payrolls, due on Friday, are expected to show an increase of 186,000 jobs, probably enough to push the Fed to move. Unemployment benefits already fell to near a 44-year low late last month, indicating further tightening of the labour market.

Indeed, markets have now almost fully priced in a hike in March, the third since rates bottomed out at the height of the crisis, and two more increases could still come before the end of the year.

Robust jobs growth threatens to overheat the labour market, just as inflation is heading higher, with the Fed's preferred measure now in the upper end of the range central bank officials in December estimated would be reached this year.

Manufacturing growth is also firming, offsetting relatively weak consumer demand, good enough for even the most dovish Fed officials to argue for a hike sooner rather than later.

Soothing global growth fears, meanwhile, China is expected to report another set of strong figures for both exports and imports, indicating that even if overall growth is slowing and debt is rising fast, the slowdown remains under control, mitigating the risk for emerging market economies.

Indeed, China's factory activity expanded faster than expected in February, firming arguments for the central bank to raise short-term interest rates by a another 10 basis points as soon as March.

Data due on Wednesday are expected to show Chinese exports up by 10 per cent in February while imports could have risen by 20 per cent, a boon for countries like Australia, which supply China with raw materials.

Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia may signal on Tuesday that policy easing is done, given the economy's convincing rebound last quarter, rising commodity exports and a robust increase in household debt levels.

Source : Times Of Oman

arabstoday
arabstoday

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

us fed and european central bank go their separate ways us fed and european central bank go their separate ways

 



Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

us fed and european central bank go their separate ways us fed and european central bank go their separate ways

 



GMT 10:06 2012 Saturday ,28 July

Querrey advances at ATP LA Open

GMT 21:15 2017 Thursday ,01 June

Trump condemns deadly Kabul explosion

GMT 02:15 2017 Thursday ,24 August

Is your country on the Qatar free entry list of 80?

GMT 19:48 2016 Monday ,03 October

Controversial boxing champ Tyson Fury retires

GMT 08:20 2015 Tuesday ,08 December

PC market woes show no sign of easing

GMT 17:27 2017 Tuesday ,25 April

20 Yemeni soldiers killed, injured in explosion

GMT 11:52 2017 Saturday ,30 December

OIC condemns Mar Mina Church attack

GMT 00:03 2017 Saturday ,25 March

Arab Meeting to Examine Anti-Corruption Methods

GMT 13:12 2017 Thursday ,20 April

Deputy premier meets Arab League chief

GMT 14:13 2014 Friday ,10 January

Opel Astra GTC

GMT 18:27 2016 Tuesday ,02 August

Turkish Foreign Minister arrives in Islamabad

GMT 11:27 2016 Tuesday ,13 December

Saudi woman arrested for challenging social norms

GMT 19:56 2017 Thursday ,09 March

Qatar Pavilion Opens at ITB Berlin

GMT 23:34 2013 Thursday ,07 February

New BMW 3 Series Gran Turismo

GMT 12:57 2017 Friday ,13 October

JPMorgan open to digital money if regulated

GMT 04:38 2017 Friday ,10 March

ADNOC opens fifth ADNOC Xpress

GMT 10:30 2017 Friday ,10 November

BDF military contingent honoured

GMT 17:37 2017 Tuesday ,24 January

China jails former Sinopec president for graft

GMT 19:34 2017 Sunday ,14 May

Austria centre-right calls for snap elections

GMT 14:54 2014 Saturday ,29 November

Wall cladding, wallpaper, fabric and wood!
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday