Arab Today, arab today us braces for makeorbreak economic data
Last Updated : GMT 21:57:37
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today

US braces for make-or-break economic data

Arab Today, arab today

Arab Today, arab today US braces for make-or-break economic data

Washington - AFP

The United States is bracing for growth figures that will set the tone for the last 100 days of the race to the White House and help decide if the Fed pulls the trigger on more economic stimulus. Early Friday in Washington, the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of how much the world\'s largest economy grew in the second quarter of this year, from April to June. With the fog of crisis hanging thick in the air, economists\' estimates range wildly. While Briefing.com puts the Wall Street consensus at 1.2 percent, respected estimates range from close to zero to fairly robust growth of two percent. Anything close to two percent would be a thumping victory for President Barack Obama, all but killing suggestions that the economy is ready to take another dive. According to one political scientist, two percent growth would even portend near-certain victory for the president on November 6. Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz has devised a formula to predict the election winner, based on incumbency, polarization, the president\'s approval rating and second quarter GDP. The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in the last five elections. \"If GDP growth comes in at two percent,\" he said recently, \"then my model would forecast that the president would end up with close to 51 percent of the popular vote.\" On all but four occasions -- in 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000 -- winning the popular vote has been enough to carry the election. But amid doubts about the rate of consumer spending, business investment and government outlays in the last few months, a two percent growth rate is far from assured. If growth is closer to one percent, it will provide a major boon to Republican challenger Mitt Romney, enough, perhaps to break the stalemate that has characterized the race so far. Although Romney has heavily attacked Obama\'s economic policies amid poor jobs data, both candidates currently hold 46 percent of the vote, according to Gallup tracking polls, a level of support that has changed little in the last three months. And both campaigns face additional pitfalls on Friday. The Commerce Department will also present revisions to the last few years of growth data, based on fuller evidence that has the potential to recast the political race. Any sign that growth has been even slower than first thought would be highly damaging to Obama, while evidence of better growth could spur renewed optimism and upgrade his economic legacy. \"Market participants are probably mostly concerned with Q2 and the previous quarter or two,\" said Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities, \"though significant revisions over the past few years could find their way into the political campaign conversation.\" Significantly, both the second quarter data and the revisions also have the potential to recast the policy of the Federal Reserve. Until now, the Fed has been cautious about launching any major new stimulus, but the new data has the potential to tip the scales toward new action. But not everyone is convinced that action would come when the Fed\'s top policy panel meets next week. A sharp downward revision to first quarter GDP or a negative surprise for the second quarter \"will increase the pressure on the Fed to do something next week,\" said Joseph LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank. But, he added, action at the September 12-13 meeting was more likely.

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

Arab Today, arab today us braces for makeorbreak economic data Arab Today, arab today us braces for makeorbreak economic data

 



Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today Jordan airline suggests flyers 'talk'

GMT 11:59 2017 Friday ,24 March

Jordan airline suggests flyers 'talk'
Arab Today, arab today Sheds light on major steps in 12-year career

GMT 06:07 2017 Monday ,27 February

Sheds light on major steps in 12-year career
Arab Today, arab today Dozens dead in US-led Syria strikes

GMT 08:35 2017 Thursday ,23 March

Dozens dead in US-led Syria strikes
View News in Arabic - Business: نفط وبتروكيماويات
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today Yemen children dream of school

GMT 07:25 2017 Friday ,24 March

Yemen children dream of school
Arab Today, arab today MP submits a petition to dismiss university head

GMT 06:21 2017 Friday ,24 March

MP submits a petition to dismiss university head
Arab Today, arab today Salvage of South Korea's Sewol ferry

GMT 04:51 2017 Friday ,24 March

Salvage of South Korea's Sewol ferry
Arab Today, arab today Prepares to give stargazers an eyeful

GMT 13:38 2017 Monday ,06 March

Prepares to give stargazers an eyeful
Arab Today, arab today Audi RS 5 Coupe acquires new design

GMT 13:22 2017 Thursday ,23 March

Audi RS 5 Coupe acquires new design
Arab Today, arab today Renault Trezor wins design award

GMT 11:56 2017 Tuesday ,21 March

Renault Trezor wins design award
Arab Today, arab today Merna Waleed praises her work with Soad Hosni

GMT 07:03 2017 Wednesday ,22 March

Merna Waleed praises her work with Soad Hosni
Arab Today, arab today 2017 already marked

GMT 15:25 2017 Tuesday ,21 March

2017 already marked

GMT 07:12 2017 Tuesday ,21 March

Donia Abdel Aziz participates in "Game of Silence"

GMT 22:00 2017 Thursday ,23 March

Number of unwedded girls amounts to 2.5m

GMT 10:34 2017 Tuesday ,21 March

Mexico threatens to ditch US corn imports

GMT 19:45 2017 Monday ,20 February

Sarah Belamesh designs antiques of "ceramic"

GMT 07:03 2017 Thursday ,23 March

Spider Venom May Offer Hope to Stroke Victims

GMT 07:36 2017 Wednesday ,22 March

US, Britain ban laptops on flights

GMT 06:31 2015 Thursday ,04 June

Pluto's unruly moons
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday