Arab Today, arab today syria’s real gdp to contract by 14in 2012
Last Updated : GMT 17:42:38
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today

Syria’s real GDP to contract by 14 % in 2012

Arab Today, arab today

Arab Today, arab today Syria’s real GDP to contract by 14 % in 2012

Beirut - Arabstoday

The Institute of International Finance projected Syria’s real GDP to contract by 14 percent in 2012 compared to 6 percent in 2011.  It attributed the contraction in activity to the large reduction in agriculture output and further declines in investment and net exports due to the escalation of fighting and economic sanctions. It warned that the contraction in output would exceed 20 percent in 2012 if the fighting continues through the end of the year, as reported by the Country Risk Weekly Bulletin, the emerging markets publication of the Byblos Bank Group. The IIF said foreign direct investment and tourism, which drove economic growth during the 2003-10 period, have dried up. It estimated tourism receipts to have dropped from 11 percent of GDP in 2010 to 4 in 2011, and to drop to 0.6 percent in 2012. It also estimated net FDI to have dropped from $1.5 billion in 2010 to $600 million in 2011, and to drop further to $100 million in 2012. It noted that the disruption in economic activity, along with the intensification of sanctions and the fall in agricultural output, have led to major shortages of basic consumer items. As such, it forecast inflation to average 17 percent in 2012 compared to 5.2 percent last year. Further, the IIF expected Syria’s fiscal deficit to widen to 14 percent of GDP in 2012 from 8 percent of GDP in 2011 due to the planned further increase in government spending and weaker tax revenues associated with the continued sharp contraction in output. It attributed the deficit widening to lower oil revenues, which used to account for between 25 and 33 percent of government revenues, depending on oil prices. It forecast Syria’s oil exports to drop to 100,000 barrels per day in 2012 relative to 130,000 bpd in 2011. It noted the government is financing most of the fiscal deficit through borrowing from the domestic banking system. It projected the current account deficit to widen to 13.1 percent of GDP in 2012 from 9.2 percent last year. It said the volume of merchandise exports fell by 12 percent in 2011 and is expected to drop by 20 percent this year, with non-oil exports dropping by 17 percent this year after a drop of 11.5 percent in 2011. Also, it forecast the volume of merchandise imports to fall by 21.5 percent this year after dropping by 14.2 percent in 2011, with non-oil imports falling by 20 percent this year after dropping by 12.5 percent in 2011. In parallel, the IIF pointed out that the large fall in foreign exchange receipts, along with an estimated $5 billion in capital flight last year, have led to a sharp decline in official foreign currency reserves to $10.8 billion, equivalent to 4.4 months of imports of goods and services at end-2011, from $19.5 billion or 7.6 months of import cover in 2010. It projected Syria’s foreign exchange reserves to decline to $1.1 billion at end-2012, equivalent to 0.6 months of import cover. It warned that the expected widening of the current account and fiscal deficits, and continued capital flight, will deplete Syria’s official reserves by end-2013 assuming no significant financial support from the regime’s allies. It estimated total capital flight between March 2011 and July 2012 at $10.5 billion, equivalent to 21 percent of GDP. It said official and black market foreign exchange rates have fallen by 40 and 80 percent, respectively since March 2011, and expected the official exchange rate to average 64.5 pounds against the U.S. dollar in 2012 compared to 49.2 pounds in 2011. It also projected the average weighted exchange rate, which assigns a weight of 60 percent to the official exchange rate and 40 percent to the black market rate, at 81.5 pounds against the U.S. dollar this year relative to 58.2 pounds in 2011. From DailyStar

arabstoday
arabstoday

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

Arab Today, arab today syria’s real gdp to contract by 14in 2012 Arab Today, arab today syria’s real gdp to contract by 14in 2012

 



Arab Today, arab today

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

Arab Today, arab today syria’s real gdp to contract by 14in 2012 Arab Today, arab today syria’s real gdp to contract by 14in 2012

 



Arab Today, arab today France defies terrorism through tourism

GMT 15:18 2017 Saturday ,20 May

France defies terrorism through tourism
Arab Today, arab today Zainab Fadel Oglu designs “Shakerin” mosque

GMT 12:13 2017 Thursday ,11 May

Zainab Fadel Oglu designs “Shakerin” mosque
Arab Today, arab today Seeks to move past rift with Israel

GMT 08:00 2017 Monday ,08 May

Seeks to move past rift with Israel
View News in Arabic - Business: نفط وبتروكيماويات
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today Girl barred from Malaysia chess competition

GMT 09:49 2017 Tuesday ,02 May

Girl barred from Malaysia chess competition
Arab Today, arab today Mozambique's gas boom dream under threat

GMT 16:29 2017 Monday ,08 May

Mozambique's gas boom dream under threat
Arab Today, arab today Prepares to give stargazers an eyeful

GMT 13:38 2017 Monday ,06 March

Prepares to give stargazers an eyeful
Arab Today, arab today Jaguar displays XF Sportbrake line

GMT 14:36 2017 Monday ,08 May

Jaguar displays XF Sportbrake line
Arab Today, arab today BMW sees forecasts in reach

GMT 09:04 2017 Thursday ,04 May

BMW sees forecasts in reach
Arab Today, arab today Climate science: Bad news gets worse

GMT 08:48 2017 Saturday ,06 May

Climate science: Bad news gets worse
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday