syria’s “day after” and its long night
Last Updated : GMT 08:31:41
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today

Syria’s “Day After” and Its Long Night

Arab Today, arab today

syria’s “day after” and its long night

Walid Choucair

So, there is a near consensus that regional and international discussions of the Syria crisis are largely taken up with talk of the “day after” the fall of the regime. This phrase is being repeated by most officials in the capitals of concerned countries. This discussion of the “day after” skips over the possibilities that things might become more complex after the fall of the regime, if the conflict is prolonged, and few people anticipate how long this could take. This means more destruction and killing, and thus hatred, which will govern the transitional period that Syria experiences after the regime’s collapse, making it even more difficult to manage things. The methodological and total destruction of cities and areas surrounding Damascus, after the same befell Homs, Aleppo and Hama, goes far beyond what people see on television. This carnage is merely evidence that the head of the regime and the small circle of his aides have taken it upon themselves to carry out what others had earlier quoted them as saying: “If they want to take Damascus, they can have it, razed to the ground.” The people who are implementing this policy are a handful of senior officers, confident that the scores of artillery pieces and rocket-launchers on Qassioun Mountain, overlooking the capital, are enough to carry out this mission. Meanwhile, a significant number of senior, fanatically loyal officers, particularly from the Alawi sect, have begun leaving Damascus for the city of Latakia and surrounding areas on the coast and its mountains. Their mission is to hole up there, to prolong the confrontation between the regime and the opposition as long as possible, because of the cooperation between the regime and Iran and Hezbollah fighters to see that these regions and others (even in the Syrian interior) remain untaken by the rebels for as long as possible. On Thursday, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, said that “as for preparing for victory by the opposition, this, of course, cannot be excluded,” because the regime is losing control over more and more of the country’s territory. This appears to be an implicit admission that it will be impossible to see a transitional phase that includes Assad’s remaining in power instead of beginning the process now without him, as has been favored by the “Friends of Syria” ever since the adoption of the Geneva Plan in June. This admission by Bogdanov shuts the door on what the remaining defenders of Assad in the resistance camp, which moves in the orbit of Iran, were saying a few weeks ago. They gave voice to the delusional speculation that a political settlement of the Syrian crisis was approaching thanks to an agreement between the regional and international countries hostile to Assad, and the BRIC countries, to see Assad remain in power. Most likely, these remaining “resistance” forces implicitly hope to negotiate over their “share” in Syria in a bazaar of pending regional issues between Iran and the Arab-western camp, after this bazaar was opened between Moscow and Washington during talks in Dublin and Geneva last week. Reducing the level of hopes in the pro-resistance camp, and particularly Iran, does not mean that new hopes can be achieved. However, the insistence on prolonging Syria’s dark night of blood and destruction that precedes the “day after” is meant to make the post-Assad regime phase extremely difficult for the western-Arab camp. The only result is more murder and annihilation of the Syrian people under a scorched-earth policy that pays no attention to the damage this will entail for Syria, for it as a country and for its remaining institutions, as well as for the sectarian and religious communities in Syria and its neighbors. Supporters of the regime as well as its opponents realize that Assad no longer exercises control over Syria, and that he has become isolated from everyone around him, living in a delusionary world of his own. He has allowed a handful of criminal officers to lead the confrontation and commit unprecedented atrocities. Assad has left them to run things, as they coordinate their actions with the remaining countries that support the regime, until the very last moment. They hope that the mission of peace keeping forces that might be sent by the United Nations Security Council, following a Russian-western agreement, and comprised of soldiers from Arab states (distant from Syria) and Asian Muslim and Latin American countries, will become a difficult one as soon as it begins. They hope that peacekeeping forces will end up being saddle with the task of separating regions of influence, instead of assisting in seeing a united Syria. They want this mission to become one of managing a new stage of the crisis and the conflict among areas of influence, instead of seeing the international community oversee a process of reconciliation among the communities of Syria and the political and economic reconstruction of this ravaged country. The regime will certainly fall. However, what is taking place today is a race between those who will try to divide up the burden that results, and those who seek to render this burden a time bomb that is inherited by the new rulers. It is also a race between those who are planning to push the military-political bloc that continues to fight with it to preserve the privileges that they have gained and between those who are working to secure guarantees for this bloc, if it helps speed up the collapse from within, instead of renewing the conflict on the "day after." And the friends of Syria do not appear to be in a hurry. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.  

GMT 15:37 2017 Friday ,27 January

Trump versus the press

GMT 06:15 2013 Saturday ,09 November

The grayness of Geneva 2 and Hezbollah's haste

GMT 04:17 2013 Saturday ,12 October

Full executive powers in Syria… and in Lebanon

GMT 04:15 2013 Saturday ,28 September

Rohani's caution and Obama's about-face

GMT 04:37 2013 Saturday ,21 September

The Russian opportunity for Iranian flexibility

GMT 04:09 2013 Saturday ,14 September

The ironies of postponing a military strike against Syria
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

syria’s “day after” and its long night syria’s “day after” and its long night

 



Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today Jordanian woman reveals her project

GMT 00:46 2017 Saturday ,11 November

Jordanian woman reveals her project
Arab Today, arab today PNG police start removing refugees

GMT 03:00 2017 Friday ,24 November

PNG police start removing refugees
Arab Today, arab today Sophian Yussef reveals suitable decoration

GMT 02:56 2017 Thursday ,23 November

Sophian Yussef reveals suitable decoration
Arab Today, arab today Syria congress to go ahead

GMT 02:24 2017 Friday ,24 November

Syria congress to go ahead
Arab Today, arab today IS media offline for a day

GMT 02:10 2017 Friday ,24 November

IS media offline for a day
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today Human form of 'mad cow' disease

GMT 00:11 2017 Friday ,24 November

Human form of 'mad cow' disease
Arab Today, arab today British woman jailed in Iran to appear

GMT 03:19 2017 Friday ,24 November

British woman jailed in Iran to appear
Arab Today, arab today Delhi half-marathon to go ahead

GMT 03:51 2017 Saturday ,18 November

Delhi half-marathon to go ahead
Arab Today, arab today The history of solar eclipses

GMT 05:16 2017 Sunday ,20 August

The history of solar eclipses
Arab Today, arab today Mitsubishi Materials units falsified product

GMT 03:24 2017 Friday ,24 November

Mitsubishi Materials units falsified product
Arab Today, arab today 'Robo-taxis' hold promise, and perils

GMT 08:07 2017 Thursday ,23 November

'Robo-taxis' hold promise, and perils
Arab Today, arab today Abeer Sabry reveals reason of “The Flood” success

GMT 08:03 2017 Tuesday ,21 November

Abeer Sabry reveals reason of “The Flood” success
Arab Today, arab today paObama climate envoy slams Trump's rejection

GMT 16:04 2017 Friday ,17 November

paObama climate envoy slams Trump's rejection

GMT 07:56 2017 Monday ,20 November

Singer Jahda Wahba has unlimited ambitions

GMT 08:03 2017 Thursday ,23 November

Srebrenica women cry tears of joy

GMT 18:41 2017 Friday ,20 October

Designer Aql Faqih aspires to innovation

GMT 11:38 2017 Wednesday ,15 November

Unloved vultures fight for their survival

GMT 17:52 2017 Sunday ,03 September

Etiquette expert underlines importance of gifts

GMT 09:12 2017 Thursday ,23 November

4 in 10 cancers due to modifiable risk

GMT 10:47 2017 Wednesday ,22 November

The Big Apple bike boom

GMT 17:12 2017 Monday ,07 August

Al-Shawaifi reveals secrets of total solar eclipse

GMT 16:53 2017 Tuesday ,05 September

Youssra depended on colored foam
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday