oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold
Last Updated : GMT 06:49:16
Arab Today, arab today
Arab Today, arab today
Last Updated : GMT 06:49:16
Arab Today, arab today

Oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold

Arab Today, arab today

Arab Today, arab today Oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold

US crude and natural gas liquids production
London - Arab Today

Crude prices are likely to remain under pressure until there are signs the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US is stabilizing or reversing lower.
US exploration and production firms have hired 530 extra drilling rigs since the end of May 2016 — 431 to target oil and 99 to focus on gas — according to Baker Hughes.
As a result, US crude and natural gas liquids production is forecast to increase by 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2017 and by more than 1 million bpd in 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
US producers will seize more than half of the projected growth in global liquids consumption of 1.54 million bpd in 2017 and 1.62 million bpd in 2018.
Experience suggests the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia will eventually respond by increasing their own output to protect market share against the threat from US shale producers.
The prospect of a renewed rise in OPEC output and global oil inventories during 2018 has thrown oil prices onto the defensive over the last four months.
A continued rise in US output during the rest of this year is unavoidable given the large number of extra rigs put to work in the first half.
The lag between spudding a new well and first commercial production averages about six months, so extra rigs in the first half will ensure continued growth in output during the second half.
But the fall in prices, if sustained, will eventually cause the rig count to stabilize, curbing growth in output next year.
The break-even price for drilling new wells varies considerably among shale plays and even between different parts of the same play.
But a recent survey of producers in the major shale plays conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed most needed US crude prices of $45-$50 to break even.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices have already declined more than $11 per barrel, over 20 percent, since their recent peak and are now below $44 per barrel.
Exploration and production firms have added an extra 145 oil-focused rigs in the last 16 weeks even as WTI prices have fallen. But the oil rig count typically responds to changes in WTI prices with an average lag of 15-20 weeks so it should stabilize and turn lower within the next four weeks
Until the rig count starts to stabilize, however, oil traders are likely to continue driving prices lower to try to uncover the pain threshold that forces shale firms to scale back drilling.
Prices are likely to overshoot on the downside, as traders drive them lower than necessary owing to the lags in the system, which will create conditions for a subsequent rally.
Once stabilization occurs, it should provide some support for prices and the relatively large number of hedge fund short positions should then help fuel a limited rally once fund managers start to cover them.
Hedge fund managers added nearly 70 million barrels of extra short positions in WTI and Brent between the end of May and the middle of June, and are likely to have added even more since then. First, however, oil traders need a clear sign that the drilling fleet is stabilizing.

Source: Arab News

arabstoday
arabstoday

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold

 



Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold oil traders hunt for shale’s pain threshold

 



GMT 16:16 2014 Wednesday ,10 September

Samirah Ibrahim receives Saudi cultural attaché

GMT 09:32 2017 Sunday ,24 September

China confirms will limit oil exports to North Korea

GMT 19:56 2016 Saturday ,17 September

Typhoon Meranti death toll rises to 28

GMT 09:40 2018 Monday ,01 January

OIC Summit opens in Kazakhstan

GMT 06:37 2015 Monday ,07 December

Iran film directors protest colleague's jail term

GMT 18:37 2017 Friday ,25 August

Mental health issues should be prioritized

GMT 04:39 2017 Thursday ,31 August

Trump vows to right 'self-destructive' tax code

GMT 05:29 2017 Tuesday ,22 August

Celebrations across India on 71st Independence Day

GMT 10:54 2017 Wednesday ,11 October

Child obesity grows tenfold since 1975

GMT 02:31 2016 Tuesday ,06 December

Dubai Women Establishment delegation participates

GMT 04:29 2018 Wednesday ,19 September

North and South Korea: Kim and Moon hail new future

GMT 14:18 2013 Monday ,19 August

Newlywed Lebanese couple pose at car bomb site

GMT 11:11 2011 Friday ,12 August

Palestinian university ranks seventh in Arab world

GMT 15:16 2015 Wednesday ,26 August

UAE ambassador attends charity ceremony in Qalubiya

GMT 16:59 2016 Tuesday ,26 July

Hedge funds in new cycle of oil short-selling
Arab Today, arab today
 
 Arab Today Facebook,arab today facebook  Arab Today Twitter,arab today twitter Arab Today Rss,arab today rss  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube  Arab Today Youtube,arab today youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday arabstoday arabstoday
arabstoday
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
arabstoday, Arabstoday, Arabstoday